Loksabha Election 2019 , Namo Vs ?

The lok sabha election 2019 are announced and the actual results will be out by 23rd May . In all probability Namo will again make it comfortably with absolute majority for BJP and NDA getting 300+ seats ie. repeating the 2014 performance . There might be some reshuffling of seats but the total tally will be more or less the same . Post the pulwama and airstrike the national narrative of BJP is the most strong unifier clearly taking the sheen out of opposition . Even the opposition is not even united or are able to zero on the issue on which to pin NAMO .  On one hand RAGA is trying to create buzz on Raffale and "chowkidar chor hai" narrative but priyanka and other people are trying to raise the issue of unemployment,agrarian distress etc .

The opposition could have done better had they sacrificed their political ambitions . Most of the regional player who have emerged in last couple of decade have gained by eating into the traditional support base of congress thus congress which is trying to rebuild is not tying up with those players in states where the local leadership feels that they can regroup and emerge as major force or in states where they are being fed crumbs for eg in delhi , the local leadership does not want to tie up with AAP who has gained on the cost of INC and in UP where SP/BSP was throwing just a couple of seats for INC ,thus forcing INC to go alone . Similarly Chandra Babu is also not going with anybody inspite of being a spearhead of "Mahagathbandhan".

UP,Which is the gateway to Delhi is still very much going to return BJP with atleast 55+ seats . My prediction is 55+ for BJP+ . This assumption is  based on certain observations .
BJP+ is on sticky wicket on certain seats which have 40+% minority vote which are going to consolidate behind the combine candidate of SP/BSP if congress does not give a strong candidate in those seats but it seems congress is not putting a friendly fight in those seats as was expected . These seats are Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor,Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Badaun, Aonla, Bareilly,Nagina, Amroha,Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, kannauj,Amethi, Raebareilly, Azamgarh, Phulpur, Ballia, Ambedkarnagar, sitapur, Kanpur etc are some of the seats where united opposition had a better chance but that does not means that BJP+ will loose all of them but rather opposition will throw a good fight. Some factors that will play quite crucial is the transfer of BSP's jatav vote to SP and SP's yadav vote to BSP's candidate . My observation is that it will be quite difficult to even 50% transfer of their core voters . UP has 19% minority , 12% yadav, 16% jatav so in best case scenario ,the SP/BSP combine would corner around 35% of total vote polled in the state ,congress will also corner around 12+% vote share . That leaves BJP+ to play on the 50+% vote bank of upper caste ,OBC's and other castes . It has been traditionally seen that whenever there is a minority consolidation ,there has been a majority consolidation as well in favor of BJP . Some other key factors will be how many MP's are dropped by BJP and other micro seat level issues for the final tally . My strong hypothesis is that pre poll arithmetic is used to stitch alliances but the actual voting is based on chemistry and can be quite opposite of the arithmetic . As already seen , Congress has already declared candidate which are going to be making big dent on SP/BSP candidate for eg saharanpur, moradabad ,sitapur etc . Also congress is trying to garner support of dalits by using Ravan of Bhim Army thus making a dent in BSP base as well .

I also see BJP+ showing similar performance in Gujarat,MP,Rajasthan , Haryana , Uttrakhand , HP Bihar,Chattisgarh,Jharkhand,Maharashtra ,Punjab & Delhi . There might be a maximum reduction on total of 10 seats in these states which will probably be covered up by karnataka ,Kerala ,TN,Telangana and Andhra .  Another area where BJP+ is going to make deep inroads and will coverup up of loses is East and North East india .This are comprise of 88 seats and two major states are West bengal and orissa . BJP has worked hard in last 5 years and has positioned itself as the main challenger to the ruling TMC and BJD . Out of the 88 seats in this region ,BJPhad had hardly 15% seats and here the BJP will gain atleast 40% seats and will thus make up for any loss which is envisaged in northern states compare to the 2014 results .

Another factor which will play an important role will be the 10Cr first time voters where Namo and BJP have a definite edge . One observation which is quite interesting is that Congress has been able to maintain the absolute number of votes it had polled since '84 but post '84 the number of total voters and votes polled has increased dramatically . Voters born post '84 far out number born pre '84 and they have different aspirations and are not swayed by the Nehru Gandhi charm to that extent. This time rahul gandhi should fight from a safe seat as well as Amethi will be tough call . Already ground for that is being created but its very difficult to find a safe seat for him. According to me the safest will be "Chindwara" ,MP as its a seat of Kamal Nath since '77 and he is the CM of MP now as well . A lot of buzz in news channel is there for this election but I feel its an open and shut case .