Loksabha '19 till fourth phase ,My take

We are almost midway of the ‘19 general elections of india . The media is overhyping and trying to portray it as a very keenly fought battle between Pro Modi and anti modi parties. From the ground one can hardly find poster banner or other traditional campaign methods . This election is mainly being campaigned using electronic media and social media . Another reason for that is that the elections are in seven phase therefore the election fever subsides after the election are over in the constituency.somehow i also feel that there is no really credible pan indian opposition to NDA . As was touted earlier ,post Karnataka state election , that there might be a combined opposition to take on the might of Modi & NDA but it ended with a whimper .
After four phase my prediction is that BJP will get 272+ on its own . There is a strong undercurrent for modi in pan india and nda candidates are immaterial in most of the constituencies. It’s mainly a vote for or against Modi . One can say its a sort of referendum for NAMO . Thats what Modi Shah team always wants because Modi does not have any credible competition currently. He has been able to drive that point quite vociferously. Modi who is a master of communication works on a plan and has been able to win elections after elections. Not a small feet by any standard . He has an uncanny knack of setting the agenda for elections and has acted as a pied piper to the opposition. Whether setting the nationalistic narrative or dynastic etc . Team NAMO has been able to communicate ,quite brilliantly ,to the electorate their narrative . He has been able to drive home the point quite brilliantly to the last mile that its only modi which can take on pakistan and has been able to tilt the international opinion in the favour of india .
I am highly impressed with team Namo , whether running the government or the elections. The team has built a solid grass root level organisation . They utilise the social media to the hilt to create and promote their narrative. All the grass root worker of BJP are filled with data to support the government and to even counter the oppositions agenda. Not that opposition has been able to pinpoint one major agenda against modi govt . At one end Rahul Gandhi is unsuccessfully paint Modi as chowkidar Chor hai  which was successfully countered by Team Modi as “Mie Bhi chowkidar” . Moreover the rahul’s attempt of painting Modi as corrupt is some how not caught the fancy with electorates . Even the congress communication strategy also looks lack lustre . The Rafale saga is one that Rahul Gandhi has hopelessly and desperately latched on to.The “NYAY” scheme which Rahul announced was quite a blockbuster but it has not been effectively communicated to the people for whom it matters . The TV channel which runs pro congress and anti Modi Agenda are some how do not have high TRP thus they are not that effective and moreover the opposition could not pin Team Modi effectively . Usually the government are changed on strong charges of corruption, which rahul is trying, but its quite difficult to put stain on teflon image of Namo .
Another major drawback has been the opposition unity index is at an abysmal low level . At one time it looked that there will be a united opposition against Modi but thats all has fizzled due to the greed and over ambition of the parties . Everybody wanted more flesh like AAP wanted to get seats from congress  in Haryana , Punjab and Goa in liu of delhi . Similarly SP BSP wanted to act as the big daddy in UP and were giving too few seats to congress. Thus congress had no choice but to go alone and thus splitting the anti modi vote and giving advantage to Modi . Moreover the opposition has been very apolitical in certain decisions and specifically in UP, the state which is the most important to the road to 7 RCR . The opposition has almost given a walkover to Rajnath in lucknow and Namo in Varanasi by giving very weak candidates. Especially it gain more significance since there were a lot of rumours of Priyanka taking on Modi, which both the sibling when asked by reporters left everybody guessing. That could have given a strong message to their supporters as well and would have shown their seriousness in taking on modi by the horn. Also SP/BSP have also put a very weak candidate. This gains more significance when rahul has filled his nomination from waynad as well because smriti is making it real hard for him in their traditional burrough of amethi  and is being seen as him chickening out .
Post the opposition victory of gorakhpur, phoolpur and kaitana it looked like that opposition has finally found the anti dot of Modi but after four phases of elections Team Namo is comfortably placed and would easily cross the 60 mark in the state . The vote transfer of SP BSP at ground level is quite poor . Except for minority consolidation to some extent the coalition hasnt worked that much . Moreover congress has also put some strong anti SP/BSP candidate for eg in saharanpur , moradabad , sitapur , badaun they have fielded a strong muslim candidate against  candidate of SP BSP as all these seats are muslim dominated thus splitting the minority’s vote and more so confusing them . Even certain stronghold of SP, which they won last time are in very tight spot. Like badaun and firozabad which SP won last time will probably be out of their kitty this time. It seems BJP is making strong inroads in west bengal and orissa and making live tough for Didi and naveen . Having said that ,It is quite difficult to predict exact seat number but my experience is that one can only gauge the wave and cannot see that how big it is . I clearly see a strong wave in favour of modi and absolutely no wave for Anti Modi thus this is for sure that modi will form the government but how big the mandate will be is still a question mark. I will not be surprised if BJP get an unprecedented majority .

This election will prove beyond doubt that Rahul is not cut out for politics .The congress will increase its tally from ‘14 but will be relegated to a regional out fit rather the default ruling party of india . Also BSP  , which is already going downhill will again face a harsh reality check . There will be rethinking at SP as well whether the akhilesh’s political moves works or he is a novice because the Samajwadi’s are watching with caution as going with BSP has made a lot of SP workers dissatisfied due to more than 50% of seats being given to BSP and RLD . This point was already raised by Mulayam singh as well . An interesting battle is on card in Tamil Nadu . It also seems that eastern indian satraps Naveen Patnaik and Mamta Banerjee will see a downslide in their vote share and there by making them vulnerable to Team Modi’s juggernaut. Even left are supposed to perform their worst tally till date . Thus brace yourself for atleast another term for Team Modi.