2019 Lok Sabha election scene



'19 Lok Sabha are unique in a lot of respect . It will make or break a Gandhi scion and congress fort. For a lot of regional satrap it will be a war of survival or probably their waterloo . A lot of these ripe mangoes of 70-75+ leaders might not be able to witness 2024 as well . Also india being the youngest nation will also see maximum growth in next 10 years and political outlook of the voter will set the mood .
My call is that BJP will get majority on its own , around 275+ seats in Lok Sabha and with allies that figure will cross 340+ .
The reason for repeat of NAMO Leher cannot be seen but its under current can be felt . Couple of reasons for NAMO repeating as a PM

 1) Unblemished teflon coated image of NAMO
2) Populist measure like 
  • Jan dhan accounts 
  • Ujjwala Yojana 
  • Toilet 
  • Women empowerment 
  • Triple talaq 
  • Demonetisations 
  • International policies 
  • Rural electrification 
  • Highway 
  • Direct bank deposits of subsidy 
  • Health insurance 
  • Etc
3) Perception of Almost zero tolerance for  corruption
4) No big scam reported during his tenure .
5) Whatever scam have been reported have infact turned into embarrassment for congress ,be it rafaele , Bank LOU , Loan etc
6) Strengthening of grass root organisation of BJP
etc etc and to top it all No real challenge as RAGA is highly immature in his public image and behaviour .

 The opposition has not been able to create a wave against the incumbent central govt and specially the image of PM.
 '14 saw an almost complete sweep  of cow belt Team Namo can repeat the performance with slight dent provided they drop certain sitting MP's in favour of new energetic candidate to suit the local caste equations . The final nail in the coffin could be 'Ram Temple" which has a PAN Indian emotional appeal more so in the economically weaker and emotionally charged voters .
There could be a loss of some seats in UP,MP ,Rajasthan which will be compensated by the surge in North East , Weat Bengal , Orissa and other states . The vote in '19 will be again either for Modi or against Modi .Only those candidate will be able to win their seats who have better image than NAMO in their areas more so in cow belts .
The main reason for oppositions sudden euphoria is because of Karnataka , MP, Rajasthan and chattisgarh . My take on thats is that either the government had anti incumbency or losses on very thin margin . But incase of Loksabha I donot see any of these factor playing . SP/BSP combo is more of hype as the vote is not transferable except the minority one which will vote for alliance ,which infact will also kick off a majority consolidation as well .

 According to me it will be again a repeat performance of NAMO and NDA . Media might try to project a fight but I don't see one happening .
And now the Math 

BJP won 282 on its own is last Election by almost clean sweeping certain state like UP, Bihar , Gujarat , MP , delhi , HP, utttaranchal , Chattisgarh,Haryana and Maharashtra. There could be some reduction in tally from here but the party has successfully worked very hard to compensate by making deep inroads in North East , West Bengal, Orissa and Kerala . These state can compensate for any shortfall in the magic tally . Plus the duo is already cosying up with probable winners of Andhra , Telangana and Tamil Nadu . They can cobble up support from them in case of any need as these players would be siding up with Party which is in better position to form government at centre and moreover both TRS and TDP will be mainly fighting against congress locally and donot have any known antipathy towards BJP. Thus IMHO NAMO is going to get a second term without much issue . What is really intriguing is that the whole opposition is waiting for the NAMO shah duo to make mistake , they are way behind in terms of preparation compared to BJP ,are mainly using  some conventional media for communications with electorate . Another key factor in favor of BJP is it will be very difficult for opposition to match BJP in funds.

·     Based on this logic , my take is that BJP will get a minimum of 275+ on its own in the 15th Lok Sabha. I also see that a lot of local congress leader jumping the bandwagon before the election or forming their own party specially Mr B S Hooda in Haryana to corner the void created by INLD , Virbhadra singh in Himachal and Harish Rawat in utttanchal . Moreover the arrogance of delhi leadership towards local leaders have already costed them dearly in north east , Goa etc . 
Moreover I have my own crude litmus test for gauging the fall of ruling disposition and ie an alternate leader start getting projected and the acceptance start creeping in the electorate for him or her as a viable alternative .His cadre start getting energised. Today the only cadre which is charged up is that of BJP . 
Moreover the route to delhi is through Lucknow and UP will not disappoint NAMO and the reason for my belief is that
·      Major base vote of SP and BSP has been dented
·     both the parties ie SP and BSP have regional aspirations thus will not deplete their resources on Lok sabha and conserve energy for Vidhan Sabha.
·     There won’t be many takers to bank roll the regional parties for the Lok Sabha elections

·     The regional parties won’t be fighting with that energy with the might of charged BJP and specially NAMO.

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