The campaign for 2019 Lok Sabha has started

The PM and chief campaigner of BJP has made two rallies in UP , The decisive state for the throne of Delhi . Most of the main campaigners of oppositions have taken a much needed vacation because than they would be up for a grueling campaign , be it Akhilesh or Tejaswi .

This Lok Sabha election will be quite interesting and very unlike of the earlier sixteen one. BJP is in a position of advantage which it had never been earlier . Electoral politics is all about

·      Leadership /Alternative

·      Organization

·      Issues

·      Local and caste dynamics

Leadership /Alternative

People usually vote in or vote out a strong leaders,whether at state level or national .

There is no doubt that Modi is the tallest leader in the country and leads by leaps and bounds . His popularity as the PM hasn’t diminished and there is no decent challenge. His carefully crafted image whether persona as an international statesman or non-corruptible or Zero tolerence, anti corruption , reformist , change agent &hard working has catapulted him into an enviable position .

Moreover he does not have any credible opposition . It seems that the leader who is trying to pose the challenge, Rahul Gandhi , is no match with him in political acumen , oratory skills, credibility , experience, performance and popularity. All other oppositions leader are at best leader of their states.

 Modi will make this as an referendum in presidential form and thus he will take on as Modi Vs rest and that will be a fight of unequal. The state leadership might give challenge in local elections but since Modi & BJP are going to make this as a national interest narrative ,the duo will dilute the regional parties national impact . So it will be either a win of Modi or a loss of Modi in this election and Modi knows this quite clearly and that’s why he has upped the ante .Moreover leadership is all about taking risks and single minded focus and there do not seems to be many people who fits the bill to the ‘T’ .

Such strong leadership also tends to dwarf internal leadership as well which we have seen in the case of BJP under modi and shah . Most of the current set of top real blue eyed boys are all from Rajya Sabha be it Mr Jaitley or Piyush Goyal or Nirmala Sitharaman or Dharmendra Pradhan But modi has taken unto himself to be the sole Icon ,it’s a big gamble but Modi is ready to take that gamble and more so he seems to be confident of his game plan . He had clearly given the message loud and clear that who is the big daddy. To counter this game plan the opposition needs to prop a leader who can dilute this agenda but also find hole in his leadership and image. They have been trying but are not able to gain much foothold but it seems that its not being pursued with the amount of seriousness it needs to be pursued like the BJP and Modi decimated the image of Rahul Gandhi. In four years since his party dropped to a historic low, Rahul Gandhi has not been able to convince voters that he has a vision for the people of the country. Gandhi and his party have failed to persuade voters that they can deliver good governance. In the last four years, the Congress has not been able to defeat the BJP in any major election, whereas the regional parties have shown some ability to do that.

People outvote a leader and right now a desire for a better alternative that is missing. Rahul Gandhi has clearly failed to be that alternative and no other persons fits the bill.

Probably Priyanka fits the shoe best in the current scenario ,the only impediment could be her husband Robert but I suppose that can be taken care of if handled carefully & who will bell the cat ie “RaGa” to give the centre stage to her.

Organization

BJP as an organization was never in a better shape than it was anytime earlier. Their coffers are full as there is hardly any pilfering with Shah and Goyal in complete control of donations moreover they have also ensured that none other gets much support from big ticket donors . The tireless and hardwork of Shah has paid rich dividend with the result there is huge swell in membership and reach in almost all nook & corner of the country . BJP has now mastered the electoral process with their system in place down to the last mile . Having said that most of the political worker are usually quite fluid and usually act as migratory birds and will dessert if they find a better alternative . Somehow the local level leadership are mainly sticking because they want to seen with power party but since local leadership is unable to give favors ,which they are so used to , are feeling frustrated but they donot have much options right now . Also there seems to be certain sense of arrogance among the organization as well . Since the people in organization are the one who were contacting the grass root workers for support so they are the one approached by the political worker to get their work done and in most of the cases they just wash their hands leaving the worker high and dry among the electorate . This has resulted in discontent among the workers . Worker empowerment will play a crucial role . Incase of opposition they do not have much to offer to his worker  but since they are out of power than they can promise one .

One big difference is RSS and its subsidiary which are always working at grass root which no other political outfit has . On the contrary congress organization in most of the states is in shambles and moreover not attracting new talents. The regional outfits are better organized than congress at grass root level but they are usually caste based parties with one family takes all the power be the Yadav clan of UP or karunanidhi family in tamil nadu or the Lalu’s family in bihar etc etc . These regional outfits attract bell weather workers whenever they see power but these workers switch side whenever they sense shift of power but so is the case with the swelling ranks of political workers of BJP . I see that addressing the discontent within the ranks as a big issue with BJP.

Issues

Corruption and arrogance had been the major issue on which there has been power changes. Modi and Shah have somehow managed to put a Teflon coating on their image as far as corruption is concerned . Inspite of various attempts by congress and other opposition parties and leader to paint the corruption and other issues ,they haven’t got much traction or it is also possible that the campaign lacked sustainability and force to catch the eyes of common man .

The main point is that Modi and BJP are setting the agenda and opposition is responding rather it should be the other way round and leave Modi gasping .

The opposition needs to act as one team with a co-ordinated campaign rather as splinter groups with separate agenda. I think that’s too big an ASK but they do not have any other way to handle this juggernaut or just wait for Modi Shah to make some blunder .The Modi Shah duo has already tried to address their weakness by setting the tone for the campaign. They seem to be in pretty good control of their government and organization .

Somehow opposition has not been able to rouse public sentiments on the improvement of general life of common man which was the main stay of campaign on '14 .A lot of government scheme have failed to yield result for eg the smart city , digitisation etc but opposition is not able to capitalise on this front . Modi and Shah have dextrously shifted the goal post and dumped the middle class voter who voted & supported them whole heartedly in '14 and have focussed on wooing the economically weaker & gullible section of the society . I see a huge support among the the economically weaker  and Old people for Modi in particular . The main opponent in voter class are the self employed urban male who have been hardest hit because of slowing economy . The opposition needs to take them into their fold but somehow they are not on their radar ,probably they donot trust them as they have been the traditional vote bank of BJP. 

Local and caste dynamics

My gut call tells me that Modi and shah will axe atleast 40% of sitting MP’s ,specially those who have been disconnected with their local constituency or there is discontent against them because individual will have lesser influence on BJP victory as the narrative this time will be to vote for Modi as Modi is projected as the crusader to change the old order and self righteous leader of the new india with no challenge . This narrative dilutes the local caste dynamics ,mind you ‘Dilutes‘ not in any way finishes it off . The regional players have been riding on a dominant caste electorate plus the vote of an additional floater for eg minority in some case or another friendly caste combinations . Like in UP ,SP and BSP had their main vote bank of Yadav and Dalit solidly backing them and were able to gain power with addition of Minority , Brahmin ,other OBC etc to gain power but these floater had switched side based on their convenience and winnability of these parties . All politician realized this fact and try to cultivate and hobnob with these sub groups leaderships . The leaderships of these sub groups are like the weather forecaster as to where the wind is blowing . Ramvilas Paswan is a classic case in study as he has been in power for more than 25/30 years without fail and have bedded all political parties and ideologies. Will be quite interesting to see if Paswan is able to predict the power game this time as well. Regional caste equations will be addressed through ticket distribution and propping up regional caste leaderships ,which has been the standard process followed by one and all .

It has also been proved time and again that development only act as a seasoning in winning electoral battle ,It JUST cannot be the main dish and specially so in case of incumbent government. Modi Shah duo have fair share of these trophies to showcase whether at national level or local level & where ever they find lacunae on this count they have the Amethi and Raebareilly Model to showcase to electorate . They are projecting this as a “For nation” and “Against Nation” type of narrative . When one plays that type of emotions than it becomes quite difficult for opposition to device a game plan. Moreover its more important that he is able to sell that emotion.

Taking these things into account I personally do not see a change in Government in ’19 . It seems the opposition has already conceded as was said by Omar post UP results .  What is all the more the disheartening is that they are not putting a decent fight as they seems to be acting like headless chickens  - highly confused as to which line of narrative they need to take.