15th Lok Sabha ,The run up

The run up to the 15th Lok Sabha 

This first in my series of article on run up to the next general election .I have deliberately given the title 15th Lok Sabha and not ‘19 as I am not fully sure that it will happen in ‘19 , it could take place earlier as well as PM has already floated the idea of ONE nation ONE Election. 

NDA is completing four years of its rule and than the citizen will again vote for the next parliament. Time really flies , it almost seems like yesterday when NAMO was coroneted as the PM against all odds and actually won with complete majority on its own . The indian electorate gave a complete majority to any party after exactly 30 years The last one was in ‘84 when it gave complete majority but was in a very different circumstances.

The next general election will be either a vote for Modi or against Modi . The team modi is already pitching this Election as a referendum or presidential form of Election. The team modi ie Modi shah and their warrior have Modi as the most charismatic vote catcher, who has already been able to not only catch the fancy of masses but has been delivering them states after state but is the tallest of leader in the country right now and their is simply no close second within BJP or opposition. Modi has dwarfed every leader in the country who is of any standing in the current times . His direct connection with the electorate is a case study . You love him or hate him but you just cannot ignore him . This election will thus be fight against modi and the rest . Modi and his team realises this fact quite clearly.

For the first time in my memory, has the ruling party focused so hard on the organisation when in power . Usually when the party is in power the stake holder in the Party were busy in enjoying the fruits of power . Modi assigned the most trusted lieutenant for building and expanding the organisation . Shah has not only made BJP as the biggest political organisation in the world , no mean feet , but has turned it into a well oiled machinery which has no parallel atleast in indian political system right now. The result of which can be seen as BJP won 19 states and making strong inroads in places where it was unthinkable like north east , West Bengal and Kerala . 

Now let’s look at the probable scenario in next Election

 A lot of media and Modi basher are propagating that in ‘14 election BJP had field run in major cow belt and won almost all the seats but will be impossible to repeat that feat . The same analysts had predicted a best case scenario of around 200 seats for BJP at that time . So it’s upto anybody to believe their prediction, which are more based on their wishful thinking than actual ground reports . 

As we speak , there is some disenchantment in the so called intellectual class with certain policies of Modi . There is also certain dissidence in certain voter class against modi who supported whole heartedly in last Election. There is no doubt on that count but having said that Modi has carved out a much bigger and stronger vote bank by using all tricks of the trade, be it policies , narratives ,anti corruption image etc . Some policies which have caught the fancy of electorate like 

• Jan dhan accounts 
• Ujjwala Yojana 
• Toilet 
• Women empowerment 
• Triple talaq 
• Demonetisations 
• International policies 
• Rural electrification 
• Highway 
• Direct bank deposits of subsidy 
• Health insurance 
• Etc 

These scheme have created a tonne of credibility among the lower strata of the society which was bereft of all these benefits and was under the impression that these are the rights of the privileged and upper class . It has been seen that more the privileged class will cry hoarse at modi policies ,more it will result in consolidation of oppressed class and the number of oppressed vs privilege is heavily tilted in favour of oppressed . BJP which was traditionally considered a urban and upper class party has shed that image and suddenly taken the mantle of Party with base vote of economically weaker class, youth and surprisingly the senior citizens . Their main opposition is now from upper middle class and middle aged electorate . 

Some other major factors favouring NAMO are

• Divided opposition 
• No leader to match him
• Electoral consolidation on communal lines rather on caste 
• Most regional parties are embroiled in succession struggle or corruption 
• Hardly any mass leader to give serious competition to NAMO's charishma
• No party to match the BJP organisational machinery  

According to me some negatives which will be used against NAMO by opposition in this election in their campaign and some genuine short comings felt by a certain section of electorate 

• Bank frauds and running away of likes of mallaya and nirav modi
• Various astronomical promises made by NAMO during '14 like 
• 15 lakh ₹ in each account
• employment
• Temple 
• Robert Vadera etc
• No congress man has been tried in the court for corruption (not that congress will raise that issue directly but might raise it in surrogate format ) 
• The worst is if all the opposition unite 
• Agrarian economy 
• SME sector woes due to demonetisations and GST
• Corruption by officials at lower level
• Local politicians are powerless thus some sort of disenchantment in them
• Sole dependency on Modi
• Side-lining of “Margdarshak mandal “ as they would try their best to stall the second term for NAMO .
• Over confidence and arrogance of worker and leadership
• Performance of BJP in Rajasthan, MP & Chattisgarh which are just before the Lok Sabha election can definitely help create a momentum. 

And now the Math 

BJP won 282 on its own is last Election by almost clean sweeping certain state like UP, Bihar , Gujarat , MP , delhi , HP, utttaranchal , Chattisgarh,Haryana and Maharashtra. There could be some reduction in tally from here but the party has successfully worked very hard to compensate by making deep inroads in North East , West Bengal, Orissa and Kerala . These state can compensate for any shortfall in the magic tally . Plus the duo is already cosying up with probable winners of Andhra , Telangana and Tamil Nadu . They can cobble up support from them in case of any need as these players would be siding up with Party which is in better position to form government at centre and moreover both TRS and TDP will be mainly fighting against congress locally and donot have any known antipathy towards BJP. Thus IMHO NAMO is going to get a second term without much issue . What is really intriguing is that the whole opposition is waiting for the NAMO shah duo to make mistake , they are way behind in terms of preparation compared to BJP ,are mainly using  some conventional media for communications with electorate . Another key factor in favor of BJP is it will be very difficult for opposition to match BJP in funds.

·     Based on this logic , my take is that BJP will get a minimum of 275+ on its own in the 15th Lok Sabha. I also see that a lot of local congress leader jumping the bandwagon before the election or forming their own party specially Mr B S Hooda in Haryana to corner the void created by INLD , Virbhadra singh in Himachal and Harish Rawat in utttanchal . Moreover the arrogance of delhi leadership towards local leaders have already costed them dearly in north east , Goa etc . 

Moreover I have my own crude litmus test for gauging the fall of ruling disposition and ie an alternate leader start getting projected and the acceptance start creeping in the electorate for him or her as a viable alternative .His cadre start getting energised. Today the only cadre which is charged up is that of BJP . 

Moreover the route to delhi is through Lucknow and UP will not disappoint NAMO and the reason for my belief is that

·      Major base vote of SP and BSP has been dented

·     both the parties ie SP and BSP have regional aspirations thus will not deplete their resources on Lok sabha and conserve energy for Vidhan Sabha.

·     There won’t be many takers to bank roll the regional parties for the Lok Sabha elections

·     The regional parties won’t be fighting with that energy with the might of charged BJP and specially NAMO.

If put in terms of poker terminology BJP has big stack , ace king suited and the flop is ace of different suite and jack and ten of same suite as that of BJP. He has already raised the bet , he is also on a roll since a couple of deals  so players with small stacks(regional parties)are not very confident even if they get a three of a kind ,they can win some but could loose all and the main opposition has a pair of 9’s . He can win IF there is 7 and 8 on turn and river or a 9 and none of them are of same suite as that of NAMO ie the ace and king and NAMO wins if there is just one more card of his suit , or there is a queen on turn or river or an ace and is infact wining at the current stage because of has two aces .