Gujarat Verdict Decoded and LS '19 run ups

#gujaratverdict decoded :
Too much is being read and written about yesterday’s result . A lot of anti BJP press and opposition parties are touting it as a massive victory for rahul Gandhi n congress and a major loss for modi shah duo because of Number of seats won by BJP and drop of vote share from 2014 lok Sabha Election. I have a contrarian view and the basis for the same is :

• BJP increased its vote share from last assembly’s Election of 2012 by almost 2% but got lesser seats than last time because the margin of victory increased this time
• Secondly BJP lost about 16 seats by a margin equal to the vote casted for NOTA . This clearly proves that there were certain segment of voters who were angry with BJP but are no way going to cast their vote to congress .infact NOTA polled almost 1.8% of total vote polled higher than any other political party except BJP N CONGRESS .
• Vijay Rupani, Nitin Patel, Jitu Vaghani - three top faces of Gujarat BJP won and on the contrary Shaktisinh Gohil, Arjun Modhwadia, Siddharth Patel - three top faces of Gujarat Congress lost thus what can be clearly inferred from this is that there was some resentment compared to 2014 against BJP but that did not translated into votes for congress
• A gap of 8% in a bi polar contest , this is a huge gap maybe the number of seats do not reflect the same 
• BJP sweeping urban areas where #GST was supposedly an issue. Thus the Gabbar singh Tax narrative failed to register 
• Also I felt that it has been difficult for the current state leadership to fill the shoes of Modi Shah combine post their movement to national scene and the obvious anti incumbency of 22 years . 
• What worked for congress was cobbling up of caste based local leaders who were influential in certain geographical areas thus cobbling up seats for them . For e.g. the Hardik patel got them seats in Saurashtra
• congress was pain lucky to get these many seats and no way was there a vote against BJP/Modi and for rahul/congress which the Delhi media has been touting . 
• The modi magic is still intact but having said that BJP need not take it lightly and they need to see that opposition unity is low or there might be a Bihar type situation, where all the opposition hanged up and inspite of BJP increasing its vote share had to face defeat .

And the crucial ‘19 Lok Sabha election :

I have full faith in the politicking skills of the Gujarati duo that the Bihar type situation won’t be repeated and specially so in UP in ‘19 because the road to Delhi is through UP Only and till SP /BSP/ Congress are fighting independently than it won’t be that tough to repeat ‘14 and w/JDU in their side than Bihar should also be easy . The party will have to work hard in Rajasthan ,MP,Delhi to repeat its '14 performance by either changing siting MP’s and basically relying on modi charisma and shah’s organisational skills . The organisation has got into the election mode and the workers and local offices are made battle ready . Much ahead of other opposition parties which haven’t started any preparations. The only reason I could find was that most of the opposition parties are regional one and they are more interested in gaining power at state level and thus donot want to waste resources in central Election and since most of the regional players in cow belt are out of power so they donot have the money power to spend on the organisation and whatever they have is being kept for Vidhan Sabha . The only opposition with pan indian presence and national aspirations is congress who some how is still being run by a bunch of Delhi arm chair politicos who donot have much interest in fighting it out on the ground .The congress top brass will have to do a ‘U’ turn from their current behaviour and get out from their slumber , empower the young local leader and rejuvenate the cadre, it will be very tough for them to stage a come back against a well oiled machinery being prepared by shah and charisma of Modi . Infact I see a lot of local good congress leaders jumping the ship pre Lok Sabha to BJP as a couple did in ‘14 and other Elections and infact most of them won. The current lot of so called second generation of congress leadership is all dynastic ,be it Jyotiraditya , Deepender , Sachin Pilot, RPN Singh, milind Deora , Jitin Prasada , Etc etc . All of them are carrying their fathers legacy and there is hardly any leader who has risen from the grass root level in the current breed . The current congress top brass acts like a club with top young turks are mostly from a pedigree and public school or foreign degree as a pre-requisite . They somehow are not equipped to toil it out on the grass root level as they have not risen from the ranks and have basically got it on a platter. Moreover if congress loses a couple more states than their war chest to fight the Lok Sabha will also be affected as funding will also trickle down ,making it even difficult.
It’s high time that rahul Gandhi abandon his new year plans , build a committed core team of Real people and sweat it out on the ground to resurrect the cadre and Party . But having said that I seriously doubt if congressmen and specially Rahul Gandhi are going to sweat it out like Shah and Modi do .