No Confidence Motion : The ramifications




No confidence motion(NCM) against modi government had a lot of takeaways
This NCM was sponsored by TDP which is facing an imminent election and anti incumbency in Andhra so it is their political compulsion to create a devil in form of BJP ,which was an ally till couple of months ago , as Jagan(YSR congress) is breathing down his throat . For N Chandrababu Naidu it’s a fight of existence & being a fighter he is ,He will leave no stone unturned to remain in power . For congress it was an opportunity to not only test the water of opposition unity but also the mind of the so called fence sitter in NDA and neutral players . Everybody was looking for opportunities in this episode ,even BJP . It was the right time for BJP to check the unity of its allies , fence sitter and other regional parties . The NCM was being carried out inspite of number heavily stacked in favor of NDA fmore for messaging purpose ,To test the water and and send the message to regional players and voters at large . Congress raised the issue of Unemployment , SC ,ST , Corruption ,Youth and minority and PM took this opportunity with both the hands and enumerated his achievements and beating the claims of opposition because those claims were not backed by any real number and Modi has been able to build his development narrative through various Pro poor scheme like Ujjwala , Rural electrification etc , for a while now and somehow the inflation and corruption are under control . Modi has been able to control the corruption and inflation ,which are the biggest issues in electoral politics and has been harping on proping up the international image of India and their by creating a nationalistic fervour among the common man . 

I feel that the biggest loser in this gamble is Congress as it is now clear that the regional players are not going to back Rahul for PM ,atleast there is no scope for Pre Poll declaration . Congress was also hoping to wean out certain disgruntled allies of BJP and claim a moral victory. This drama in parliament, if played properly, could have propped Rahul as the only  challenger to Modi and there by establishing him as the leader of Anti Modi brigade. This drama was going according to the plan with minor hiccups till the master stroke of HUG by Rahul ,which even Modi was taken aback . Catching modi off guard is a big moral victory but his winking post that scene just lost every gain. Modi immediately noticed that gaffe and made a mockery of  it in his counter speech as well, resulting in a war on SM .The images of wink will be splattered on TV  and mobile screen for a year . BJP was also able to convince Shiv Sena to stay away and even disgruntled elements like Shatrughan Sinha voted against NCM on fear of losing membership to parliament . More over Congress+ were expecting 140+ vote till the morning of NCM could only muster 126 votes thus they could not manage their herd itself . Another crucial pointer was abstaining of BJD & TRS who are not part of the NDA . This is clear message from these regional player that they have shown the white flag to Modi and are in no way party to the opposition alliance . That means that they are open for quid pro quo arrangement with central government . Also AIADMK voting in favor of the government should be a moral victory for BJP  .
A coalition without the two major regional players viz BJD & TRS ,that too the one who are in power in their respective state, is a major message to other similar players as well . already Kumarswamy is crying about the coalition issues . Even post NCM episode only Tejaswi  Yadav has come out in open in full support of Rahul and other players are gauging the situation with muted silence ,Be it SP or BSP and even NCP and TMC haven’t made any major statement in support of Rahul .
It seems the regional players would like to hold their forts in their region and would take BJP in their state rather trying to stop the Modi juggernaut of Lok Sabha elections and specially so under the stewardship of Rahul because of the skewed up risk return.
This NCM drama was mainly to test the allies and check for potential allies and Modi has been able to not hold his fort but was able to convince some others as well which the Cong/Rahul failed .
Once again Rahul exposed himself badly on national TV in his eagerness to take the mantle of leadership of this coalition . He could have easily asked senior leaders like Ghulam



Nabi Azad ,P Chidambram, Manmohan Singh etc to lead the attack & thus getting less exposed . Somehow it turned out to be a “No Confidence in Rahul” type of affairs . Congress & Rahul have made their road to Lok Sabha ’19 even more harder .

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