Run up to '19 ,the battle is heating up

The stage is clearly set for a no-holds-barred faceoff in 2019. There is little room for doubt now on whether Rahul would lead his party into the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In this run up to the '19 Lok Sabha election both the contenders have viz BJP and Congress have upped their ante .

Congress recently had a plenary session in delhi to set the tone for '19 . This had a lot of significance because of country entering into the election year . Rahul and his team had to give a lot of message to the congressmen and the electorate through this session . He made a couple of drastic moves to give the message that who is the boss and also in line with the expectation about leadership from the new generation.

It must not have been easy for Rahul Gandhi to keep the Congress old guard off the stage at the recently concluded plenary session. He must have met with strong resistance from the seniors in the party to sit on the chairs below ,away from the limelight , along with the party workers. They couldn’t comprehend a seating arrangement like that. There chance to project to their supporter and workers that they flaunt their closeness with the first family And with this, the Congress president tried to give the message that he wants to change the very culture of this party —quite in keeping with the theme “Change is Now”. Even younger leaders took centrestage with discussions on issues like social justice, Vision-2020 and the state of the media. The visual symbolism was meant to project that who is at the centre of course.

Team Rahul wanted it to be like the convention of a democratic party and not a gathering of old guards controlling the party with “dyed hair and Nehru caps “ seated on an elevated stage making those "hardly" inspiring speeches . 

Rahul was giving the message that party is responding to the changing indian demography and that was his response to be seen as one who is trying for change and what better way to set his own house in order . With the stage empty of people, the limelight remained on Rahul as he tried to deliver ,one of his most gladiatorial speeches, come on the guys has his limitations but he is trying . He tried to look at ease taking  on PM Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah. Rahul tried to take the battle in opposition camp by  mocking the PM, ridiculing the RSS and its role in the freedom struggle and even questioned its concept of nationhood, attacked the BJP’s “divisive Hindutva politics” and referred to Shah as a “murder accused”.

he may have gone a little overboard with his comparison of PM Modi with fraudsters Nirav Modi and Lalit Modi. It was probably not a good idea to paint the entire Modi community with the same brush, but then sometime such gimmicks work on the ground And our raga showed that he is not averse to playing to the gallery. Rahul is not letting any opportunity to attack Modi pass him by. Be it doklam , demonetisation, 15 lakh , bank frauds, unemployment 

He is trying to give message to his party worker and electorate that he can take on Modi and the BJP . The strategy is good but will be tested in the upcoming Karnataka polls—Rahul’s biggest test since taking over as party president. Karnataka is the largest of the four states that still have a Congress government. With Amit Shah vowing to wrest it from the Congress, Rahul is on an extensive campaign trail in the state.

Rahul has also realised that they cannot be seen as against Hinduism so they are trying to spin an Inclusive Hinduism vs Divisive Hindutva narrative. 

He is also trying to  change his perception as “politically driven temple run “ . His great grand father , grand mom and father have also used the Hindu leaders to project them self as proponent of soft hindutva . They all had seek blessing and also hobnobed with various Shankaracharya’s as and when required . 

Rahul’s invocation of the Mahabharata at the plenary, and later at a Mangalore rally, was in the same vein. The Gandhi scion used the symbolism of mythology and scriptures but giving it a pluralistic undertone without hurting the minority vote bank . 

Rahul vs Modi

The Congress is trying to project Rahul as an antithesis to Modi—amiable versus arrogant, reasonable versus unreasonable, inclusive versus intolerant, democratic versus authoritarian. I personally feel that it’s a good strategy but needs to propagated properly and rahul needs to work real hard to get build the organisation to drive this narrative in electorate  mere promoting on social media and speeches won’t give the result . It needs to be ably supported by an army of charged workers . 

Trying to Come of Age

It hasn’t been an easy journey for Rahul. Specially so when one is there under constant scanner and pitted against the likes of modi and Social Media at its peak , one faux pas and you get trolled really bad . Through a concerted and unrelenting campaign, the BJP and its supporters have projected him as "Pappu" .  He has been given derogatory names. Subramanian Swamy, for example, claims Rahul is not educated, it is difficult to fight once a perception is built and win a war of perception as there is too much noise and hype. BJP took the lead and congress is way behind in using of technology and understanding its impact and when they realised the significance the damage was already done and Raga’s acts also helped the cause . 

The PR team is trying various image building measure be it changing his Twitter handle to @rahulgandhi from @officeofrg which smelled too bureaucratic. The format of AICC session where there was no body sitting on the Dias as was the case earlier is also seen as the age old party trying to break the tradition . 

Giving sidhu a chance to speak was a good move but sidhu who gave a rabble rousing speech in his inimitable style but the social media trashed him by comparing his content to his various speeches in favour of BJP and they it seems it was a cut copy job as he used the same couplet for modi and congress .I think BJP already has a game plan against the rabble rousing of Sidhu otherwise he can be a star campaigner for Raga in the run up to '19. 

Bypoll of UP

The results of the bypoll have infused fresh lease of life in the opposition, Somehow the opposition ,SP and BSP, have realised that if they all gang up than the Modi Shah duo can be defeated . BJP lost the gorakhpur seat for the first time after '89 and that too when Yogi was the MP and is now the CM . Suddenly the opposition which had their tail between the legs is smelling blood and even allies like TDP , TRS and GJM are also exerting themself . 
      SP + BSP combo
These results have opened the field and exposed the vulnerability . With SP and BSP alliance , This combo will have major share of minorities and yadav and jatav combine . This bloc is about 35% of total electorate of UP and moreover there polling percentage is also higher compared to other caste combination . This will definitely acts as a major road block for the Modi Shah juggernaut in UP .

Modi and Shah have already upped the ante which was seen in the rajya sabha election of UP .  Having said that , there are a lot of variable in this SP+BSP bon homie . The core vote bank of BSP is transferable but not the same can be said about voters of SP as there is lot of friction between the core voters of these parties at ground level . Moreover mayawati has been the 'Giver' in the current situation and ASY realises this quite clearly and that is reason he is bending backwards to placate Behenji . Moreover there are not many people in this world who can act as interlocutor to behen ji as most of the top leadership in BSP have deserted her because of her whimsical mannerism and moreover she does not have anybody who can guide him. It will be quite an uphill task for ASY to work with her . Moreover she will and should show that who is the big daddy of this alliance . I strongly feel that she should at least ask for 45+ seats ,if INC is also into it and 50+ if its just SP+BSP . ASY will have to listen to her if he wants this alliance going . Moreover behen ji must not have forgotten the guest house episode and will never trust MSY and Shivpal etc . Infact she would bargain to keep them at bay and ASY will use this as an alibi to again sideline the old guards . 
BJP inturn will have to cobble up all the Non Yadav OBC's and Non Jatav SC/ST's to take on the Muslim,Yadav and Jatav combo . The smaller regional parties like Rajbhars/Nishad/Lodh/Kurmi etc will also play a crucial role and there community leaders will also seek their pound of flesh.      

Interesting times ahead . Good time for students of politics . 
" पिक्चर अभी शुरू हुई है मेरे दोस्त "